The Green Policy Center has examined the impact on Hungary of the European Union legislative package, originally presented in July 2021 and subsequently modified, known as Fit for 55, including plans to disengage from Russian energy carriers (as of December 1, 2022, in EU lawmaking).
The forming EU expectations would place Hungary on a path that would bring it to climate neutrality in a more balanced way than the current government strategies and would reduce our dependence on expensive fossil fuels. Of the provisions in the EU proposals, the most impactful on Hungary’s emissions reduction could be sector-specific regulatory requirements for renewable energy and energy efficiency, which could also drive the achievement of emission reduction targets. Reaching the new requirements for forestry and some energy efficiency goals, however, seems challenging for Hungary. A rapid growth in biomethane production, solar panels, and wind energy (if re-authorized) is expected in energy supply.
According to the results, Hungary’s net greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 57.1% compared to 1990 by 2030, 83% by 2040, and reach climate neutrality by 2050. (Current government measures plan for only a gross 40% reduction in emissions by 2030, leaving the majority of work towards achieving the 2050 climate neutrality goal for the period of 2030 to 2050).
The proportion of renewable energy in the country’s total final energy consumption is estimated to reach 30% by 2030, based on modelling (compared to the current target of 21%). The increase would primarily be felt in solar and wind energy, biomethane, and biofuels, with solid fuel use remaining at a high level. The carbon-free (renewable and nuclear) share of the country’s electricity generation could reach 92.5% by 2030 and 94% by 2050, based on model results. The country’s overall exposure to energy imports would decrease.
In terms of energy efficiency, the modelled final energy consumption in Hungary in 2030 would be 2.68% lower than the EU reference without increased measures. Reaching the proposed target on yearly decrease for Hungary would require further, more determined measures than what the sum of the proposed sectoral energy efficiency targets would provide.
The increased 2030 European Union expectations regarding carbon dioxide sequestration by forestry in Hungary appear to be unachievable due to the destructive impact of the changing climate on forests. However, this can be offset by the increasing reduction of emissions in other sectors, which can also result in valuable quotas for our country. The fight against climate change, although requiring many resources, will lead to an increase in GDP and job creation by 2050 and will also be financially profitable by saving a large portion of the currently spent huge sums on energy imports. Stopping the escalation of climate change is not a chooseable, “expensive hobby,” but rather a necessary task to avoid greater damage. The implementation of these expectations requires much greater climate protection efforts from all sectors and all domestic actors than the topic has received in the past years.
The full report (in Hungarian) can be accessed below.
