Climate change and escalating geopolitical tensions increasingly threaten the security of energy supply. The European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC) has released a new report outlining these risks and potential responses. In Hungary and Slovakia, the main concerns include dependence on Russian energy sources, the unchanged rate of natural gas usage, and the supply of their nuclear power plants.
Energy as a Security Weapon
EASAC’s energy programme launched its latest report titled “Security of Sustainable Energy Supplies”. The report emphasizes that Europe’s greatest security challenge stems from its reliance on imported fossil fuels—particularly oil and gas. This dependency exposes the continent to geopolitical coercion and economic vulnerability. According to the authors, growing geopolitical tensions and high reliance on imported fuels, raw materials, and technologies pose an increasingly significant threat to Europe’s energy security.
Authoritarian regimes are increasingly using energy supply as a weapon—through trade interruptions, physical attacks on infrastructure, and more frequent cyberattacks. These tactics not only raise the risk of supply disruptions but also inflate energy prices. High and volatile prices erode investor confidence, jeopardize the competitiveness of European industry, and push millions into energy poverty.
Source: EASAC
EU Response and the Risk of Replacing One Dependency with Another
In response, the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, reduced Russian gas imports, sought alternative sources, and promoted energy efficiency and renewable energy through initiatives like REPowerEU. Since 2022, the EU has taken major steps to diversify its gas supply and increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. However, the report’s authors caution against replacing dependence on Russian gas with reliance on LNG from other third countries, such as the U.S., due to associated risks.
Sustainable Energy: Climate Protection and Energy Sovereignty
Phasing out fossil fuel imports is not only a matter of energy security. Fossil fuel dependence also hinders global climate action by diverting resources from green investments and slowing the transition to sustainable energy. The report emphasizes that a well-directed transition to sustainable, locally produced energy and the adoption of innovative technologies are essential for a secure and prosperous future—both economically and environmentally.
According to Professor Paula Kivimaa, co-chair of EASAC’s energy working group,
Every investment in sustainable energy is an investment in our security. In contrast, every euro we spend on energy imports is a euro lost from our defence capability.
Increasing European sovereignty requires phasing out fossil fuels, ramping up renewable energy production, advancing circular economy practices, and boosting energy efficiency investments. As fossil fuel use declines, the EU will increasingly rely on sustainable electricity and fuels. However, to maximize their benefits and create a more resilient energy market, Europe must invest in energy grid development and better demand-supply management. While these goals already featured in EU strategies, the report calls for greater investments in power grids, energy storage, and demand-side management to more effectively integrate weather-dependent renewable sources.
High Electrification, Local Technology, and Critical Raw Materials
Transitioning away from fossil fuels entails massive electrification across buildings, industry, and transport, which necessitates the expansion of renewable energy sources and adoption of electric end-use technologies. However, the EU currently depends heavily on external sources for solar, wind, and battery technologies. Expanding domestic production of these technologies would enhance energy security, create jobs, and boost economic growth. To compete with cheaper imports, innovative solutions are needed. The report also stresses the importance of supply chain partnerships to secure essential energy technologies and raw materials. Europe must ensure a reliable supply of critical materials like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements necessary for these technologies.
The EU’s Green Transition: Not a New Challenge
The report’s challenges are not new to the EU or its member states. The European Union’s 2050 climate neutrality goal and supporting policies—such as the European Green Deal and the Clean Industrial Deal —aim to drive the green transition, enhance industrial competitiveness, and strengthen energy security and sovereignty. By 2023, renewable energy accounted for around 25% of total EU energy consumption, and plans indicate that fossil fuels may be fully phased out by 2050.
Source: EASAC
CEE’s Energy Security Challenges
Though the report primarily assesses energy risks at the European level, it’s worth reviewing the regional situation. As Hungary and Slovakia are the major importers of Russian fossil imports, we will concentrate on them. According to EUROSTAT numbers, in 2022, Hungary’s dependency on foreign fossil energy sources was 1.7 percentage points higher than the EU average, while the dependency of Slovakia was 7,1 percentage point above EU average, placing them mid-range among EU27 nations. In 18 EU countries, dependency exceeded 50%. However Hungarian statistics may be misleading, as nuclear energy is counted as domestic, even though the country cannot produce or dispose of nuclear fuel, therefore nuclear power creates a double dependency. The same dependency could be said about Slovakia as well, as it also imports all its nuclear fuel from Russia, however the country has already made some efforts to develop 100% European nuclear fuel for its reactors.
Source: Eurostat
Hungary’s and Slovakia’s import rates for oil and gas both are quite high, while both countries perform poorly in diversifying fossil fuel sources. In 2023, Hungary was the fourth-largest global buyer of Russian energy and the top buyer in the EU, while Slovakia was coming in as the second Member State.
Nonetheless, both countries are striving for energy transition, which requires phasing out fossil fuels, transitioning to renewables, and supporting energy efficiency. Hungary’s revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) raises its 2030 ambitions for emission reductions, renewables, and efficiency. Yet it still forecasts high gas consumption and continued import dependency (above 80%)—a potential economic risk if another price shock occurs. This projection, including plans for new gas power plants and industrial capacity, underscores the country’s expected high gas use. In the meantime, Slovakia plans only a 15% decrease of natural gas usage by 2030 compared to 2019 in its ambitious scenario. However, it is important to note, that Slovakia made efforts to cover some of its consumption from non-Russian sources. While domestic gas extraction projects and diversification efforts may reduce dependence on Russia, a faster reduction in gas consumption would be a more strategic move for both countries. Moreover, a U.S. bipartisan proposal to impose a 500% tariff on exports to countries continuing to import Russian energy could further complicate Slovakia’s, Hungary’s , Austria’s and Bulgaria’s position, who are still the most dependent of Russian gas.
Climate Risks for Hungary’s Energy Sector
A separate report examined climate-induced risks to Hungary, reflecting the strong public concern over energy security and climate change. Climate change has already impacted energy infrastructure and supply security. Beyond extreme weather damage, water-related challenges are a key issue—especially concerning the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, which relies on the Danube River for cooling.
In recent years, low water flow during droughts and rising water temperatures during heatwaves have forced production limits and safety measures at the plant. These events occurred in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, according to the Hungarian Electricity Works.
The report identifies three climate-related energy risks:
- Damage to energy infrastructure (e.g., transmission lines, substations, transformers);
- Disruptions to energy production—especially in summer due to limited cooling water;
- Strained supply-demand dynamics during more intense and frequent heatwaves.
Phasing out fossil fuels and supporting the green transition therefore not only bolster energy security but also strengthen national sovereignty by reducing dependency on foreign sources.
