As Europe is spending billions to rearm itself and strengthen its military security, V4 experts call decision-makers not to lose sight of negative effects of climate change, as neglecting the risks of climate change could undermine long-term security and stability in the region.
In response to rising international tensions with Russia, the European Commission has announced its ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 defence package of EUR 800 billion to massively invest in defence, procure defence systems and build up the readiness of the European defence industry. However, climate change represents an equally profound long-term threat to Europe’s security. Its impacts extend far beyond the environment, affecting food and water security, public health, migration and macroeconomic stability. As such, climate resilience should be recognized as a core component of Europe’s security strategy.
Just lately, the European Academies’ Science Advisory Council (EASAC) has released a new report outlining that climate change and escalating geopolitical tensions increasingly threaten the security of energy supply as well. Professor Paula Kivimaa, co-chair of EASAC’s energy working group even stated that, “Every investment in sustainable energy is an investment in our security. In contrast, every euro we spend on energy imports is a euro lost from our defence capability.” Heatwaves, floods, droughts are already affecting CEE countries and these security impacts of climate change will only intensify if action stalls.
With the acceleration of climate change, weather extremes and consequently various types of damages have been occurring more frequently across Europe. We cannot say that these impacts will only negatively affect future generations, as in recent decades we have already seen significant damages across the continent that can be attributed to the negative effects of climate change. It is important to note that these are not just environmental issues, but they are security risks affecting livelihoods, public health and economic stability.
Extreme weather and climate events have caused a total of more than 487 billion euros in damages across the 27 member states of the European Union over the past four decades. According to estimates, the annual average economic damage caused only by river flooding in Europe amounts to over 5 billion euros. In addition, wildfires also cause significant economic losses, with the annual cost of such damages estimated at around 2 billion euros. Furthermore, data from the European Environment Agency (EEA) show increasing trends: the inflation-adjusted average annual economic losses have risen from 10 billion euros per year (1981–1990) to 14.7 billion euros per year (2011–2020). The damages were not limited to the economy however; between 1980 and 2020, more than 138,000 people lost their lives in the European Union as a result of extreme weather and climate events.
Source: EEA
The CEE region is also massively affected by the security risks posed by climate change. Just as a recent example, one can easily recall the terrifying images of the floods of last year raging havoc in the region.
According to a report by Koalicja Klimatyczna, climate change must be seen as a process that threatens national security, as it contributes to problems, unrest and internal conflict. The report is titled The Impact of Climate Change on Polish National Security. Droughts, fires, floods and heatwaves are the effects of climate change that endanger people’s lives, health and well-being. The report also highlights other risks associated with the climate crisis. These include:
- an increase in tick-borne diseases and the emergence of previously absent viruses.
- Reduced food self-sufficiency due to droughts and crop failures.
- Destruction and shutdowns of climate-sensitive infrastructure;
- More frequent power plant shutdowns and power cuts.
- Restrictions on movement and the transport of goods.
- Decreased production in energy- and water-intensive sectors.
Extreme weather events also come at a cost. In Poland, for example, they amounted to an average of PLN 6 billion per year between 2001 and 2019, equating to a total of PLN 115 billion in direct losses. Furthermore, forecasts by the Polish Insurance Association indicate that GDP could fall by 3-10% due to climate change by 2050. In addition, the burning of fossil fuels, a major cause of the climate crisis, leads to severe air pollution in Poland, which, according to the European Environment Agency, causes more than 40,000 premature deaths a year and contributes to respiratory and cardiovascular disease in many millions of patients.
Between 2012 and 2022, heatwaves caused 8,288 excess deaths in Hungary. During the same period, domestic insurance companies were required to pay out 72.407 billion forints in compensation to the population due to summer storm damage, while between 2011 and 2021, they paid 55.478 billion forints to Hungarian crop producers. Natural damage must also be considered: between 2011 and 2021, a total of 67,525 vegetation fires were recorded in Hungary. As for economic impacts, extreme weather events caused an average GDP loss of 0.5–1% in the country between 2005 and 2014, according to reports.
In Czechia, the dry spell lasting five years between 2015 and 2020 was the worst in recorded history with significant negative impacts for agricultural production as well as soil and ecosystem health. A number of shorter-term drought periods have followed. While the overall precipitation has not changed, the average temperature in Czechia has risen by 2,3°C since 1960, close to double of the global trend. Changing climate is linked to the sorry state of a majority of Czech forests as warmer and dryer weather weakens trees while on the other hand supporting the life cycle of bark beetles. This helped create the perfect conditions for a widespread wildfire that took place in Bohemian Switzerland in July, 2022.
In mid-September 2024 Central European countries experienced exceptionally heavy rainfall leading to widespread flooding. This event was associated with Storm Boris, which brought record-breaking precipitation over a four-day period. The floods affected multiple regions in Slovakia, including areas around the Kysuca and Myjava rivers, as well as parts of the Little Carpathians. Significant damage occurred in several towns and also in the capital Bratislava. A study conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA) analyzed this event and found that human-induced climate change had approximately doubled the likelihood of such extreme rainfall events and increased their intensity by about 7%. The study combined climate models capable of simulating heavy rainfall in the area with observational data to assess the impact of climate change on the event.
These negative events are expected to have significant security risks on human health and healthcare systems, water management, our food supply, nature, the economy, and our energy supply in our region. In practical terms, this can lead to reduced agricultural output, increased energy prices, strain healthcare systems and public budgets through disaster recovery spending and intensified climate-induced migration across Europe.
NATO already recognises such threats, as evidenced by the adoption of the Alliance’s 2021 Agenda on Climate Change and Security. As NATO members, countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland should not be left behind.
This is why it is crucial to prepare for the expected negative effects of climate change in a timely manner to prevent them from becoming security challenges. The immediate physical threats of extreme weather are only part of the challenge. Climate action means addressing national and regional security as well.
Therefore, first and foremost we call on national governments to carry out detailed climate risk assessments focusing on possible security threats, leverage on regional cooperation and fight misinformation on the possible threats of climate change. Carefully planned prevention and preparedness through normal political processes can be more cost-effective in the long run than dealing with the consequences if our countries, populations, and economies are caught unprepared. Climate action must be seen as a key pillar in strengthening national, regional, and local resilience and in safeguarding long-term security interests.
Therefore, CEE and EU leaders must ensure that climate action remains a central pillar of the broader security agenda. We therefore call on national governments to conduct comprehensive climate risk assessments that explicitly consider security-related threats. These assessments should inform targeted adaptation strategies and emergency preparedness plans. Carefully planned prevention and preparedness measures, developed through normal democratic processes and implemented at all levels of governance are more cost-effective than reacting to crises after the damage has already been done.
Investments in climate adaptation, sustainable energy and green innovation are not in conflict with traditional security priorities, but they are an integral part of it. Let us make it clear, rearmament without climate resilience will leave Europe vulnerable in more ways than one.
Amelia Suchcicka | Koalicja Klimatyczna
Tibor Schaffhauser | Green Policy Center (GPC)
Tomas Jungwirth Brezovsky | Association for International Affairs (AMO)
Veronika Oravcova | Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA)
